The time has come for Canada to revamp its naval capabilities with modern submarines. Canada’s Navy submarines face pressing challenges in the Arctic region—a resource-rich frontier where global powers are increasingly contesting territory.
Protection of sovereignty and gathering intelligence is paramount. However, the aging Victoria-class submarines, which date back to the 1990s, fall short in range and stealth to address these needs. With a defense spending ratio among the lowest in NATO, Canada struggles to keep pace with rising threats in the Arctic.
Aging Concerns: The Limitations of Victoria-class Subs
Canada currently operates only four Victoria-class submarines. While designed for homeland defense and counter-narcotics operations, their effectiveness in combat and power projection is limited. These submarines feature obsolete diesel-electric engines and can only achieve a top surface speed of 12 knots and approximately 20 knots when submerged. The only operational endurance stretches up to a mere eight weeks.
Originally built in the United Kingdom and not indigenously produced, these vessels face an uncertain future. The Canadian government acknowledges the need for modernization. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has initiated a revamped defense strategy, entitled 'Our North, Strong, and Free,' focusing on rejuvenating the Navy and enhancing undersea warfare capability.
Investment in Arctic Security Submarines
To that end, Canada plans to replace its Victoria-class submarines with up to 12 new Arctic security submarines by investing approximately $60 billion CAD. These submarines aim to patrol Arctic waters and bolster Canada’s ability to detect maritime threats, defend its territorial waters, and project power at greater distances. As stated by National Defence Minister Bill Blair, "The procurement of up to 12 conventionally-powered, under-ice capable submarines for the Royal Canadian Navy will enhance Canada’s ability to detect and deter maritime threats."
The timeline indicates that these new submarines are expected to be operational by 2035. However, a crucial decision looms regarding whether to opt for nuclear-powered submarines or to rely on conventional diesel-electric models.
Cost Considerations and Production Timelines
The choice between nuclear-powered submarines and conventional subs isn't straightforward. While nuclear-powered options offer greater combat range and duration, they come with high operational costs, extensive maintenance requirements, and a need for specially trained personnel. Additionally, procurement timelines will impact Canada’s undersea strategy significantly.
Defence analysts have debated this issue since at least 1987, amid Cold War tensions when Canada first considered nuclear-powered submarines to counter Soviet forces. However, fears surrounding the proliferation of nuclear technology have created hurdles in moving forward, even with allies like the United States and the United Kingdom.
Prime Minister Trudeau suggested in a 2024 conference, “That is certainly what we will be looking at as to what type of submarines are most appropriate for Canada’s responsibility and protecting the longest coastline in the world.” This statement indicates a willingness to take nuclear options under consideration.
Political Leadership and Future Uncertainties
Trudeau's upcoming departure from office raises uncertainties about Canada's defense strategy continuity. The potential for a trade war with the United States could divert attention away from military spending priorities, potentially delaying the Victoria-class replacement. This concern is echoed by military observers who fear that national security issues may take a backseat during political transitions.
Other countries, such as Sweden, Germany, and Norway, offer compelling submarine options that Canada may consider, particularly in the diesel-electric arena. These options come with shorter lead times and established production capabilities, making them appealing alternatives for immediate needs.
A Long and Strategic Procurement Process
The process to replace the Victoria-class submarines is underway, starting with a Request for Information (RFI) to assess existing military industrial capabilities. This step is preliminary to later Requests for Proposals (RFP) that will initiate the purchasing process. Assessment is crucial to determine whether Canada should proceed with foreign purchases or explore indigenous development options.
All these considerations point to a lengthy procurement process, leaving the Canadian Navy continuing to rely on subs that are inadequately equipped to maintain effective Arctic patrols.
As the military strategizes for future enhancements, the need for a decisive path forward grows urgent. With Arctic geopolitical dynamics evolving rapidly, Canada cannot afford delays or indecision in upgrading its undersea capabilities. A robust defense posture is essential for ensuring national sovereignty in a region that grows increasingly contested by global powers.
Planning for the Future
The era of the Victoria-class submarines must end, and a new chapter for Canada’s naval capabilities must begin. As military and political leaders seek to reshape the Navy, they must ensure that Canada’s defense spending aligns with NATO requirements and addresses burgeoning challenges in the Arctic. Combining strong economic policies with a robust defense strategy will enable Canada to safeguard its sovereignty in a critical maritime realm.